Historically, the sitting U.S. President’s political party struggles in the first midterms after they took office. Since 1946, the average midterm loss for the president’s party is 25 seats.
Not only is history against the Democrats running for office in the midterm elections next November, but President Biden is also polling very low as a result of his poor performance during the Afghanistan withdrawal, COVID mismanagement, open borders, and skyrocketing inflation numbers.
Based on history and Biden’s poor performance, Democratic Party leaders are already lowering their expectations for the 2022 midterms and bracing for the possibility of the Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, according to a Politico report.
After they interviewed over 24 state party chairs, strategists, and executive directors, Politico determined that the Democrats “are reframing the 2022 election as a defensive effort.”
Rather than keeping their majority in the U.S. House of Representatives, Democrats’ focus is on maintaining their Senate majority and preventing the Republicans from taking control of the House by more than 20 seats.
“My goal is — even if it’s slim, if it’s by one — it’s keeping control of the House and adding at least one or two more to the United States Senate,” said Democrat National Committee chair Jaime Harrison.
At a Democrat training event in Charleston, South Carolina, one strategist said, “If we’re in the 10 to 20 [loss of House seats] range, that will be better than we thought.”
One state party chair gave up on the idea of a Democrat majority in the House, telling Politico, “I don’t see any way we keep the House.”
New Jersey Democrat Party’s vice chair, Peg Schaffer, said, “I’m scared. We need to get the vote out, and in the midterms, it’s hard.”
Democrats feel their 2022 prospects are not promising. Karl Sandstrom, a lawyer working with Democrats, said, “It certainly isn’t promising. But it’s a long year.”
Certain Democrats, like Sandstrom and Nevada Democrat Party chair Judith Whitmer, are optimistic about their chances in 2022, but they are a part of a dwindling minority of Democrats.
“We have to stop with this tendency to have a self-fulfilling prophecy,” said Whitmer. “We keep hearing this narrative, ‘It’s going to be a bloodbath.’ … I don’t think we should look at it like that. I think we have to be optimistic.”
Some Democrats are still holding out hope believing that if the Democratic-controlled Congress can get Biden’s BBB agenda passed, polling will turn around.
According to Politico:
If Democrats are able to muscle voting rights legislation through Congress and also pass Biden’s Build Back Better agenda — and if inflation and Covid come under control — one state party executive director said Democrats could at least maintain a sufficiently large minority in the House to “block bad things from happening.”
With Senators Joe Manchin (D-WV) and Krysten Sinema (D-AZ) taking a stand against Biden’s Build Back Better (BBB) agenda and their party’s attempt to end the Senate Filibuster, the party faces an almost insurmountable uphill battle.
After months of trying, Biden recently conceded that the bill would not get passed before the end of the year, which is what Senate Democrat Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) wanted.
If the GOP does take back the Congress, the tables would be turned and Pelosi and others’ text and personal lives would suddenly be up for public scrutiny. In addition, both President Biden and Vice President Harris could both be impeached, following their abdication of securing our southern border.